Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 43.499814 51.414540 60.137851 70.435072 82.225689 95.271478 110.764296
2024-10-13 30.548718 40.644699 52.908499 68.770238 88.595776 112.400298 142.970072
2024-10-20 26.293695 38.184759 53.689591 75.089850 103.516332 139.596474 188.407510
2024-10-27 20.000250 31.533167 47.591601 71.104946 104.081122 148.024529 210.209676
2024-11-03 17.367633 29.319289 46.883800 73.860616 113.364471 168.056046 248.196728
2024-11-10 15.605254 28.005727 47.122719 77.735091 124.264022 190.812656 291.238262
2024-11-17 14.022206 26.656275 47.022040 80.911822 134.198640 212.680675 334.266454
2024-11-24 12.166583 24.512328 45.321194 81.288121 139.745431 228.320217 369.044992
2024-12-01 10.171711 21.764789 42.220534 78.964614 140.701988 236.920536 393.635135
2024-12-08 8.925079 20.170071 40.845871 79.278246 145.767297 251.969780 428.706528
2024-12-15 7.982402 18.996335 40.044384 80.430470 152.201026 269.436994 468.373064
2024-12-22 6.455841 16.354561 36.167280 75.640535 148.034888 269.414651 480.074942
2024-12-29 5.762295 15.491678 35.832468 77.801456 157.039832 293.096927 534.104965
2025-01-05 4.761500 13.745175 33.521070 76.029685 159.028509 305.490580 571.040332
2025-01-12 4.634951 14.048662 35.509326 82.924384 177.593633 347.688375 660.829652
2025-01-19 3.682707 12.048487 32.183066 78.580925 174.412255 351.333141 684.567984
2025-01-26 3.365037 11.643535 32.367215 81.585223 185.715420 381.666847 756.693112
2025-02-02 3.151704 11.479654 33.084729 85.807047 199.770404 417.891398 841.278073
2025-02-09 2.915399 11.190719 33.449570 89.266777 212.527359 452.437655 924.643327
2025-02-16 2.559631 10.440100 32.533737 89.676495 218.940789 475.311983 987.802771
2025-02-23 2.132088 9.328696 30.483822 87.146289 218.832300 485.531621 1027.903744
2025-03-02 1.874596 8.718262 29.671743 87.487871 224.948948 508.268432 1092.744942
2025-03-09 1.679838 8.275420 29.251347 88.742644 233.172461 535.655445 1167.830531